The website's creative editor Dmitry Bykov talked with the famous Russian political scientist Valery Solovy.

Valery Solovey - professor, head. Department of MGIMO and the most famous Russian political scientist today. As he himself likes to say, "for two simple reasons." First, his predictions are confirmed nine times out of ten. This is because, he explains, he has good informants. Personally, it seems to me that the informants have nothing to do with it, and he has good intuition, but let him explain as he wants.

"And Kadyrov can be replaced, and Shoigu is not fully trusted"

- We are talking on the day of Dzhabrailov's arrest ...

- Arrest already? Not detention?

- While the arrest, but the charge was brought: hooliganism. Shot at the hotel. Four Seasons. Near Red Square.

- Well, that's okay. I think they will let you go. Maximum - by subscription. (While he was writing, he was released on subscription. Either someone knocks on him, or he writes the script himself. - D. B.)

- But before he was generally inviolable ...

- Let there be no inviolable now, except for the narrowest circle. The problem is not that there are no institutions in Russia, but that the typically Russian institution - the roof - stops working. A month ago, I was hinted that two banks are under attack - Otkritie and another, considered ethnic, and that there will not be enough funds to save both of them. The Otkritie was just saved. Does this mean that the remaining can should be ready? And there is such a roof!

- After the murder of Nemtsov, he even left Russia for a while. But the idea was even earlier, even, they say, a replacement was found - but that person had not been to Chechnya for a long time and did not come up. However, for Kadyrov it would have been an honorable displacement: it was about the status of deputy prime minister. But no portfolio.

- And in Chechnya knew about this alleged z-amena?

- Yes. And Kadyrov, naturally, knew. After all, his famous phrase that he is "Putin's foot soldier" means his readiness to obey any order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

- The longer it will be outside Ukraine, the more difficult it will be to integrate it there, and the time line, it seems to me, is five years. After that, alienation and hostility can become formidable. As the Russian side says at the talks: if we weaken support for Donbass, Ukrainian troops will enter there and massive repressions will begin. However, there is a certain compromise option: Donbass goes under temporary international administration (UN, for example) and the "blue helmets" are included there. Several years (at least five to seven) will be spent on the reconstruction of the region, the formation of local authorities and so on. Then a referendum is held on its status. Currently, Ukraine is vehemently rejecting the idea of ​​federalization, because Russia is proposing it. And if Europe proposes federalization, then Ukraine can accept this idea.

- And no Zakharchenko?

- He will go somewhere ... If not to Argentina, then to Rostov.

- What do you think: in the summer of 2014 it was possible to go to Mariupol, Kharkov, then everywhere?

- In April 2014 it could have been done much easier, and no one would have been able to defend themselves. One local high-ranking character, we will not name names (although we know), called Turchinov and said: you will resist - in two hours the troops will land on the roof of the Verkhovna Rada. He wouldn't have landed, of course, but it sounded so convincing! Turchinov tried to organize a defense - but at his real disposal was only the police with pistols. And he himself was ready with a grenade launcher and in a helmet to climb onto the roof ...

- And why didn't you go? Scared what?

“I don’t think they would. In my opinion, they would have swallowed it the same way they swallowed Crimea in the end: after all, we have the main sanctions for the Donbass. But, firstly, it turned out that in Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk the moods are far from the same as in Donetsk. And secondly, let's say you even annexed Ukraine as a whole - and what to do? There are only two and a half million people in Crimea, and even then its integration into Russia is going, frankly, not smoothly. And here - about forty-five million! And what will you do with them when it is not clear how to deal with yours?

- Actually, there is another scenario. bang - and all our problems will cease to exist.

- It won't bang.

- But why? Did he launch a rocket over Japan?

- He has few of these missiles. And he won't do anything with Guam. The only thing he really threatens is Seoul. But South Korea has the status of a strategic ally of the United States, and after the first strike on Seoul - and there really is nothing to be done there, the distance is 30-40 km from the border - Trump's hands are free and the Kim regime ceases to exist.

- That is, everything will end there?

- I think that when - yes. My friends from Seoul ...

- Also sources ?!

- Colleagues. And they say that no premonition of war or even a military threat is felt: the metropolis lives an ordinary life, people do not panic ...

"Obama asked and Putin stopped"

- What, in your opinion, is the real role of Russia in Trump's victory?

- Russia (or, as Putin called it, "patriotic hackers") did launch attacks, after which Obama, he said, warned Putin, and the attacks stopped. But all this was before September 2016! Otherwise, Trump's victory is the result of his successful political strategy and Hillary's mistakes. She could not play on the factor of predestination. If you talk about your uncontested victory all the time, they will want to teach you a lesson. Incidentally, this is one of the reasons why Putin has been slow to announce the campaign.

What has Trump done? His team clearly understood which states to win. Trump has successfully politicized the Rednecks, an embittered and somewhat stagnant white middle class. He showed them an alternative: you are not voting for a person from the establishment, but for simple guy, flesh and blood of true America. And he won on this. But Trump - and this was understood here - is not so good for Russia: rather, Moscow simply did not like Clinton very much.

- Isn't there a global revenge of conservatives in the world?

- These myths could be believed in the sixteenth year, when Brexit happened at the same time, Trump won and Le Pen had some chances. But Le Pen never had a chance to advance beyond the second round. And then ... There are relapses, the era does not go away without them, but as the era of Gutenberg ended, the era of political conservatism, as we knew it before, ended. People live by different oppositions, different desires, and the fight against globalism is the lot of those who want to live in the “mental Donbass”. Such people will always be, these are their personal ideas that do not affect anything.

- A big war is not visible on the Russian routes?

- We will definitely not initiate it. If others start, which is extremely unlikely, they will have to participate, but Russia itself has neither an idea, nor a resource, nor a desire. What kind of war are you talking about? Look around: how many volunteers went to Donbass? War is a great way to solve internal problems until it leads to suicide: this is the situation now.

- But why did they take Crimea then? Distracted from protests?

- I do not think. The protests weren't dangerous. It's just that Putin asked the question: what will remain of him in history? Olympics? And if he really lifted Russia from its knees, how was this expressed? The idea of ​​appropriating / returning Crimea existed before Maidan, just in a softer version. Let us, as it were, buy it from you. It was possible to agree on this with Yanukovych, but then the power in Ukraine collapsed, and Crimea actually fell into the hands of itself.

- And will it remain Russian?

- I suppose so. The Ukrainian Constitution will say that he is Ukrainian, but everyone will put up with it.

- But how do you imagine the idea with which post-Putin Russia will live?

- Very simple: recovery. Because now the country and society are seriously ill, and we all feel it. The problem is not even corruption, it is a special case. The problem is in the deepest, triumphant, general immoralism. In absolute absurdity, idiocy, which is felt at all levels. In the Middle Ages, where we fall - not by someone's evil will, but simply because if there is no forward movement, then the world rolls backward. We need a return to the norm: normal education, calm business, objective information. This is what everyone wants, and, with a few exceptions, even those around Putin. And everyone will breathe a sigh of great relief when the norm returns. When they cease to whip up hatred, and fear ceases to be the main emotion.

And then the money will return to the country pretty quickly - including Russian, withdrawn and hidden. And we will become one of the best start-up sites for business, and economic growth within ten to twenty years may turn out to be record-breaking.

- But how are we all going to live together again - so to speak, Krymnash and Namkrysh?

- Well, how did you live after the Civil War? You have no idea how quickly all this is overgrown. People sort things out when they have nothing to do, and then everyone will have a case, because today in the country there is total meaninglessness and aimlessness. It will end - and everyone will find something to do. Except, of course, those who want to remain irreconcilable. There are five percent of such in any society, and this is their personal choice.

- Finally, explain: how are you tolerated at MGIMO?

- You know from your own experience that at MGIMO different people... There are retrogrades and liberals, there are right and left. And I'm not the one and not the other. I look at everything from the standpoint of ordinary, unbiased common sense. And to everyone who wants to be a successful interpreter of reality here, I can give the only advice: do not look for insidious plans and malicious intent where banal stupidity, greed and cowardice operate.

Biography milestones:

1983 - Graduated from the Faculty of History, Moscow State University

1993 - becomes an expert of the Gorbachev Fund

1995 - completed an internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science

2012 - elected chairman of the New Force party

Professor Nightingale regularly mentions some kind of future decision by the Kremlin, which will inevitably lead to change.

Activity statesman and politics is always judged on the basis of its ending. If the final was successful, then all his previous activities are colored in positive tones. If his finale was not successful, not successful, then all his previous activities are also exposed to negative coverage. For President Putin, the final is still ahead, although his era of course ends.

"I believe that in general his activities will be assessed negatively," said Valery Solovey, political scientist, historian, professor at MGIMO.

In Russian history, no leader has been in more favorable conditions than Vladimir Putin. Russia had no external enemies, the attitude of the West, despite all the collisions, was generally benevolent. There were high oil prices, which had a beneficial effect on the country's budget. The public welcomed Putin, after the Yeltsin era it seemed that this was the beginning of the country's revival. And for the first seven to ten years, Putin really justified the credit of public confidence, the country's economy grew and the incomes of the population grew.

And then everything began to change when Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev conceived and carried out a reshuffle on the exchange of posts.

"And people were offended, they considered it a deception. In fact, it was a deception," says Valery Solovey.

People, in whatever country they live, always experience psychological fatigue from the ruler, and this fatigue occurs if the ruler has ruled for a long time, more than ten years. Therefore, if Putin left on time, he would forever remain in history as the greatest ruler who raised Russia from its knees. And today society evaluates the president from the point of view of the deterioration of its social position. The crisis in the country has been going on for the sixth year in a row, and the incomes of the country's citizens have been declining for the sixth year in a row. People think with their pocket and how they will feed their children. This could have been tolerated for two years, when the president said in 2014 that tolerate for two years, and then everything will be fine. And people of course endured. But six years in a row is too much. A colossal irritation in society is caused by the fact that any country in the world will not keep a government that cannot cope with the crisis.

"And what about Russia? The president, after being re-elected, appoints the same government, headed by the same prime minister named Medvedev, who is openly despised in the country. It's not a secret for anyone. What feelings this should evoke in our people," says Valery Solovey.

And then take it and get it - here's the pension reform. This is a mockery of the people and common sense. In Russia, men in many regions do not live to be sixty-five years old. What is it? The president's rating falls all last years despite the short-term increase in popularity due to the return of Crimea. The people have already had a very large negative experience in recent years, and in the mass consciousness of people, the figure of Putin will be evaluated more and more negatively.

“From the point of view of history, as a historian, I say this, he will be assessed as a person who missed a unique historical chance to ensure the rapid development of Russia.

In the early 2000s, when energy prices were rising, the president missed an opportunity to reform the economy. His liberal entourage told him: why, look what oil prices and they will rise. Why do we need to develop our own industry, we will buy everything. We have enough money for everything and for theft too. It was with such a strange conviction that the president and his entourage lived. Russia will sell raw materials for a long time to come and there is nowhere to get away from. The question is how and where the proceeds from this are invested, who manages them.

"We will spend them so that the Rotenbergs build themselves luxurious palaces and buy yachts for themselves, the largest in the world. These people, 15 years ago, walked around St. Petersburg in sports trousers and sold small consumer goods in kiosks," says Valery Solovey.

But how many old people in our country are destitute, how many unhappy people. In the country, the whole world is collecting money for the treatment of children abroad, since the state does not have the funds for this. That's what you need to spend money on. If you say that we have people main value, let's invest them in making life at least a little better and easier.

The "liberal" crowd (in order to avoid misunderstandings, it should be noted that this community has the same relation to liberalism as J.'s business project called the Liberal Democratic Party) has a new idol - the former head of the public relations department of MGIMO Valery Solovey. His insights from the "corridors of Kremlin power" made him a welcome guest on Echo of Moscow, Dozhd, RBK, Republic.ru and other media, where his constant presence forms the community of the "liberal" crowd, and ardent criticism of the authorities and decisive predictions made Valery Dmitrievich to the rank of guru. The recent departure from MGIMO, which, according to the professor himself, was due to "political pressure" created an aura of the persecuted around him and gave him a chance to move from the status of a guru to the rank of a civil and political leader. Valery Solovey did not fail to take advantage of this by announcing the formation of a certain “civil coalition”.

And all would be fine, but every time Valery Dmitrievich uttered his rebellious speeches, smashing the Kremlin from a liberal position, some bad people sent a video from his speech in Vladimir Solovyov's program "Duel", in which the professor acted in Zyuganov's team and defended Stalin from the "liberal" Gozman.

In this speech, Valery Dmitrievich explained to Leonid Yakovlevich that they live with him “in different countries"Because," in the country of Messrs. Gozmans, it is customary to spit on mass graves. " In addition, Professor Nightingale said that "the consequences of the liberal reforms that took place in the 90s in terms of their losses are comparable to what happened in the 30s and that is attributed to Stalin."

In this two-minute fragment of his speech, Valery Dmitrievich included so many markers characterizing his political and human face that it is somehow even embarrassing to decipher and comment on them. "Gentlemen gozmans", "spitting on mass graves" ... "The losses from the liberal reforms of the 90s are comparable to the losses of the 30s" ... Replace professor Nightingale with the caveman Stalinists Starikov or Prokhanov and you will hear exactly the same rhetoric.

Last week, Nightingale, speaking at Echo, decided to explain himself, after which he and Leonid Gozman exchanged open letters. First, Valery Solovey explained that all discussions about Stalin are good for the Kremlin, since they form a 'false agenda': has nothing to do with the present. " End of quote.

To a reasonable question from the host, why did he himself take part in creating a "false agenda", participating in this discussion about Stalin, the Nightingale answered with a disarming smile: "a man is weak and vain." When the presenter began to inquire why the Nightingale, who criticizes the authorities today from liberal positions, took part in the discussion on the side of Zyuganov, defending Stalin, Valery Dmitrievich first tried to deny, they say, he “did not defend” either Zyuganov or Stalin, and then, apparently, realizing the absurdity of denying the obvious, he referred to the "evolution of views."

Special attention should be paid to the "evolution of views" of Professor Nightingale. During that memorable speech on the side of Zyuganov and in defense of Stalin, Valery Dmitrievich tried to ideologically lead the Russian nationalists, created for this purpose the nationalist party "New Force", and became its chairman. In those days, this is the period from 2011 to 2013, Valery Solovey spoke mainly from the tribunes of the nationalist and Stalinist media in company with such people as Vitaly Tretyakov, Alexander Dugin, Mikhail Delyagin, etc. Evolution and even a revolutionary change of views is a completely normal thing, the whole question is when and under the influence of what reasons it occurs.

In the late 80s - early 90s, the views of many people changed under the influence of a huge amount of new information, including about the past of our country. In 2013, Nightingale stands on the side of Zyuganov and defends Stalin from the "liberals" and "gozmans". And in 2017, he enters the campaign headquarters of presidential candidate Titov as the curator of ideology and declares that it will be the ideology of "right-wing liberalism." It is difficult to assume that in the interval between 2013 and 2017, Valery Dmitrievich learned something new about Stalinism or liberalism. The reason for the "evolution of views" of Professor Nightingale is about the same that during the years of Soviet power forced people like him to hesitate along with the party line, and after the collapse of the USSR, led former experts on scientific atheism to stand in the church with candles.

Professor Nightingale headed the Department of Public Relations at MGIMO, that is, he is a PR specialist. This profession has its own rules, the most important of which is the priority of the customer's interests. Valery Dmitrievich has contracted to defend the positions of Zyuganov and Stalin - explains about the "inseparability" of Stalin from Victory. Received an order to create a nationalist party - it will justify the priority of the Russian people and the harmfulness of the "gozmans". Assigned to supervise the ideology for the "Party of Growth" Boris Titov, Professor Nightingale will hit the ground and instantly turn into a right-wing liberal, defending the freedom of small business and the delights of a competitive economy.

Professor Nightingale does not have any views, and their "evolution" depends solely on a change in market conditions. And further. Regarding the insights and predictions of Professor Nightingale. On the website "Russian Platform", where Valery Solovey regularly spoke together with nationalists Yegor Kholmogorov, Konstantin Krylov and his student, Vladimir Thor, on May 8, 2012, his article was published entitled "Bloody Sunday of Vladimir Putin", in which Professor Nightingale prophesies: " Putin will not sit out until the end of his presidential term. It's obvious now. " Further, Professor Nightingale points out the specific deadline for the death of the Putin regime - about six months. “Very soon we will see thousands and tens of thousands crushing police cordons on their way,” the rebellious professor broadcasts.

All this, according to the assurance of Professor Nightingale, should happen in a matter of months. "This fall - a new rise!" - predicts Professor Nightingale. Let me remind you that it was in May 2012. 7 (seven) years have passed. Putin is still in the Kremlin, and Professor Nightingale is vanging today as if nothing had happened: “In 2020, Russia will face a revolution, a national crisis and a change of regime. Putin will not sit out until the end of his presidential term. "

I know many opponents of the Putin regime who are trying to see in the country and in the government some signs of the approaching end of this new type of fascism, and out of impatience they make such predictions, each time making mistakes. But Professor Nightingale is a different case. A public relations professional must exude optimism when communicating with a customer. Yesterday Professor Nightingale served the Stalinists and nationalists and "made them beautiful." Today he serves the "liberal" crowd and "does it beautifully" for them.

The "liberal" crowd and the liberal society of Russia led by it, like a herd of sheep, all the time follow the "goats-provocateurs" who have come out of the Kremlin. Be it "Kashin-guru", or Ksenia Sobchak, or Belkovsky with Pavlovsky, or Prokhorov with his sister, or even Medvedev with freedom, which is "better than lack of freedom." According to recent studies, aquarium fish do not have such a bad memory that they can be compared to people who make the same mistakes all the time. So for the Russian liberals it will be necessary to select other analogies ...

https: //www.site/2016-03-25/politolog_valeriy_solovey_my_pered_ochen_sereznymi_politicheskimi_peremenami

"After the elections, serious restrictions will be imposed on the exit of citizens from the country."

Political scientist Valery Solovey: we are facing very serious political changes

Historian, political analyst, publicist Valery Solovey has published a new book - “Absolute Weapon. Fundamentals of Psychological Warfare and Media Manipulation ”. Why are Russians so easily amenable to propaganda processing and how can they be “decoded”? How, proceeding from this, will the internal political processes develop in the near future? What is the most likely outcome of the election? Will our connections with the outside world change?

"In the manipulation of consciousness, Western democracies, the Nazis and the Soviets followed the same path."

- Valery Dmitrievich, readers are wondering why you wrote another book on a question that has already been considered by dozens of other authors? For example, at one time the book by Sergey Kara-Murza "Manipulation of Consciousness" was popular. What mistakes and shortcomings do you see in it?

- In Russia there is not a single worthy book that would talk about propaganda and media manipulation. Not a single one - I will emphasize! The famous book by Kara-Murza became so popular only because it was the first in Russia on this topic. But in terms of its methodological basis and content, it is frankly mediocre. Further, my book, for the first time in literature, connects cognitive psychology with long-known stories about methods, techniques and techniques of propaganda. So far, there has been no such analysis and generalization in the literature on this topic. Meanwhile, cognitive psychology is extremely important because it explains why people are susceptible to propaganda and why propaganda is inevitable. As long as there is humanity, there will be propaganda. And, finally, I must say that I covered the topic of propaganda using actual examples that are well understood by readers. The result was a book that was even noted by the leaders of the Russian propaganda machine. As my friends told me, they said about her: "The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic." True, they also added: "But it would be better if such a book did not come out at all." I think this is a very high mark. In addition, the first print run was sold out in three weeks. Now the second is coming out. Here is my answer to why I wrote this book.

Valery Solovey: “The first thing they pay attention to is hair. If a person is bald - by the eyes. A man needs to take care that he has good teeth and shoes. " from the personal archive of Valery Solovy

- You once said that the concept of the Overton Window that came from the West, revealing the secret mechanisms of undermining social norms, is nothing more than a pseudo-theory. Why?

“The Overton Window is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiracy in nature: they say, there is a group of people who are planning a strategy designed for decades to corrupt society. Never and nowhere in history has anything like this been and cannot be due to the imperfection of human nature. I suggest a person who adheres to the concept of "Overton Window" to plan his life for at least a month and live so according to his plan. Let's see what happens. A love of this kind of conspiracy is characteristic of those who are not able to control even their own lives, let alone to control anything at all.

“In our country, the Overton Window is remembered when moral problems are pointed out. Patriarch Kirill said so: "For homosexuality, pedophilia will be legalized."

- All changes in the history of mankind occur spontaneously. This does not mean that there is certainly some kind of conspiracy behind them and the legalization of homosexual marriages in some European countries will certainly lead to the legalization of pedophilia. Moreover, in one case it comes about adults who do something voluntarily, and in another about minors who have parents, and the legalization of pedophilia is possible only through violation of human rights and violence. Therefore, yes, what was anti-norm 100-200 years ago is suddenly becoming acceptable today. But this is a natural process, there is no need to see here the “furry paw of the Antichrist” who came to this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else.

At the same time, I want to say that in the same way, in a natural way, a reaction can also occur. I do not at all exclude the possibility that European society may swing back to conservative values. And not because somewhere there will be a group of conspirators or agents of the Kremlin in Europe, but simply society will decide that enough is enough, played enough, it is necessary to think about self-preservation.

"The leaders of the Russian propaganda machine said:" The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic. But it would be better if it did not come out "" pycode.ru

- Speaking about the manipulations of consciousness in our country, from what historical period can we count them? Since the time of the Bolsheviks or even earlier?

- If we talk about manipulation in general, then from the moment people learned to speak. But if we are talking about mass manipulation, then from the moment the channels of mass communication appeared. The emergence of the mass media can be considered the starting point of mass deception. These are, of course, newspapers, radio, television. And in this sense, all more or less developed countries followed the same path, that the Western democracies - the USA, Great Britain and so on, that Nazi Germany, that Soviet Russia... The propaganda takes place in all countries without exception.

Another thing is the quality of propaganda, sophistication, and the presence of pluralism. In the same USA, there are media holdings owned by various independent owners. Therefore, different propaganda campaigns balance each other and during electoral "marathons" citizens have freedom of choice. Well, or the illusion of freedom of choice. That is, where there is pluralism, propaganda is always more subtle and sophisticated.

- In one of your interviews you said that the BBC is one of the most objective English-speaking TV companies. Do you still think so?

- This company confirms this reputation with its many years of work. All broadcasters allow punctures, they are all addicted in one way or another, but the BBC suffers from this least of all.

"Russia has managed to create the best propaganda machine"

- And our propaganda is more kondovaya and dumb?

- I would not say that. Russia has managed to create, of course, the best propaganda machine. But it is focused exclusively on its own population, since outward propaganda was not very successful. At least in the European area. Very professional people are engaged in our propaganda. These people, in particular, learned a lesson from the information failure of the summer of 2008. Remember the war for South Ossetia, which Russia won militarily, but, according to everyone's opinion, lost in information and propaganda? Since 2014, we have seen that the propaganda mistakes of 2008 are gone.

But we must understand that any propaganda has its limits. Russian propaganda hit its limits at the turn of 2015-16. And you and I will gradually observe its extinction. Or, as they often say today, the refrigerator will gradually start to beat the TV. I think that at the turn of 2016-17, her strength will be seriously weakened.

- Today's diligent resuscitation of the Stalin cult, for example, raises doubts ...

- There is no need to fight this. This will collapse on its own as soon as the regime weakens. Stalin in the current realities is nothing more than a propaganda symbol that has no real content and materializing power under it. Those who call for the return of Stalin in our country believe that he should return only for their neighbors, but not for themselves. When it comes to selfish interests, none of these Stalinist screamers is ready to sacrifice anything. So the cult of Stalin is a fiction. It's just that the authorities are exploiting the era of Stalin in order to legitimize some of their measures of a repressive nature. But not more. There is a rule of complex social systems. It says that a return to the past, no matter who wants it, is impossible.

RIA Novosti / Evgeny Biyatov

- But to Stalin, as if enchanted, with flowers go "both old and young." Can you tell us about the methods of decoding personal and social consciousness?

- Use common sense, judge people by their deeds, read more, either don't watch TV at all, or no more than 20 minutes a day. If you are encouraged to vote for a party that promised something 5-10 years ago and has not done anything by the current date, in no case do not vote for it. Actions speak for themselves.

- And then, in the future, is it necessary to luster the propaganda media outlets? What are they doing - crimes? Are they obligated to be held accountable?

- It is known that the Nuremberg trials equated propaganda with a crime against humanity. Therefore, in a sense, this question can be answered in the affirmative. As for lustration, I do not exclude it, but it is too early to say who it will affect.

"The masses will come out, but this will not lead to a civil war and the collapse of the state"

- This year, for the first time in a long time, elections for half of the State Duma will be held in single-mandate constituencies. Can we expect that the pre-election campaign will become more diverse, and that new faces will come to the Duma, revive it, and make it a "place for discussion"?

- Despite the fact that the single-mandate constituencies were returned, I think that the most dangerous for the safety of the regime will simply not be admitted to the elections. Even at the registration stage, candidates pass through a "sieve" that allows us to weed out those disloyal to the regime. And even if some of the unwanted are allowed to the elections, they will experience the most severe pressure and generally regret having gone. At the elections, they will create the impression of competition, but not competition itself, everyone will have the same message, just the style is different. Therefore, the Duma itself, as a whole, will retain its decorative character.

RIA Novosti / Alexander Utkin

- Do you see in the country, in principle, any real opposition to the regime, capable of leading the people?

- In Russia there is the opposition, which the regime allows to exist. Because any real opposition to them is destroyed in the literal and figurative sense. But the regime is afraid of even a weak opposition.

- In this case, the reader asks, how do you, a specialist in media manipulation, assess the chances of Putin's leadership to formalize and legitimize in the eyes of the population the transformation of Russia into a semi-closed, anti-democratic autocracy by the type of countries Central Asia?

- Indeed, today the ruling group in Russia is preoccupied with the question of how to maintain its dominance until 2035-40. At least I have heard arguments on this score from people close to the so-called "elite". But I believe that in the next couple of years we will see the limit of this regime's capabilities. I agree that its representatives will try to legitimize their power. But, one way or another, they will soon run out of opportunities for this.

- What about “physical” events like border closings?

- After the elections to the State Duma this year, serious restrictions on the exit of Russian citizens from the country will most likely be introduced.

- Do you mean the law on exit visas?

- No, it's unlikely. Unspoken recommendations will be given to officials of all levels and their families not to leave the territory of the country. And if the officials are so seriously infringed, they will not tolerate any part of society in the country to remain free. In Russia, if serfdom is introduced, this applies to all estates. This is a historical tradition. According to my information, a tourist tax will be introduced, which for many categories of citizens will cut off the opportunity to travel abroad.

fastpic.ru

- Will this not become a factor that, on the contrary, will bring the collapse of the regime closer? After all, this step will affect not only "kraakl", but also ordinary people, who previously allowed themselves for relatively little money to relax in decent hotels in Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Tunisia and so on.

- You are right, regimes do not collapse because of the undermining by the opposition and external enemies. They collapse due to the stupidity of the managers. And sooner or later these nonsense begin to acquire a malignant character. If you look at the history of the fallen regimes, you get the impression that those who ruled them, as if they were deliberately leading things to collapse. In general, with regard to any political processes in Russia, there is an axiom that the dynamics of the masses is unpredictable. And you can never know ahead of time what seemingly insignificant things can lead to major political shifts.

- One more reader's question is pertinent here: “What scenario is the most possible in Russia? First, Shoigu (or another conservative) becomes president, punitive and protective measures are tightened, that is, the transition to the USSR No. 2. The second is the "Libyan scenario." The third is the Rose Revolution scenario. The fourth is a peaceful evolution towards European democracy. Or fifth, the disintegration of the Russian Federation into many small states as a consequence of the current colonial pseudo-federal system? "

- What I definitely do not expect is the disintegration of Russia. When they say this to me, then I clearly understand that it is pure water trading in fear. I believe that Russia is facing very serious political changes. They will occur in the not too distant medium term and will change our political landscape beyond recognition. These changes will be predominantly peaceful. And then we will move not very clearly where. It will depend on the outcome of the change.

- In the early 1990s, the masses also quite peacefully took to the streets and declared: "You can't live like that anymore."

- Yes, they will come out. And not for political reasons, but for socio-economic reasons. I think that this is very likely, especially in large cities. But this will not lead to a civil war or to the disintegration of the state. I do not believe in this.

RIA Novosti / Alexey Danichev

“But when a protest is peaceful, it is easy to suppress it. No wonder a person asks you a question about Shoigu and the tightening of punitive and protective measures.

- The power is constantly moving in this direction, but one should not exaggerate the loyalty of the repressive apparatus. She is not at all what it might seem. In a critical situation, they simply may not follow the order and move away.

- Not the disintegration of the country, but the decay of some regions, for example the North Caucasian ones - is this possible?

- I don't think these republics want to leave Russia. In fact, they feel good in it. Where should they go? Without her, they would not survive at all. Therefore, they will bargain, trying to impose their terms. But as a result of political changes, I think Moscow's policy towards these republics will become more balanced and meaningful. Personally, I don’t think that paying huge sums of money for political loyalty is the right thing to do. It corrupts. Yes, and already corrupted.

"Our politicians use neo-Eurasianism and religion as long as it suits them"

- And do we still have sane nationalist, or rather national-democratic forces after the Ukrainian events?

- As for organized nationalism, it drags out a miserable existence. He is not allowed to raise his head, many leaders, like Belov, are behind bars. Others, like Demushkin, understand that as soon as they show activity, they will go after Belov. But as for nationalism in general as a kind of public mood, it certainly exists. And these sentiments will soon be in demand politically.

- Are you going to revive your National Democratic Party "New Force" when the times are more favorable for public politics?

- It is frozen due to the fact that we were threatened with reprisals. But in general, I believe that both today and in the future, the party format is futile. I think that other formats will be in demand.

RIA Novosti / Yuri Ivanov

- What are the prospects for the coming to power of members of the "Committee on January 25" Igor Strelkov and other "Novorossovtsy"?

- There are different people in this organization: nationalists, Soviet "imperials", and Orthodox monarchists. I do not see that this organization has any prospects. But some, some of its leaders, do. And I do not exclude that 2-3 of them will be able to play their role in the upcoming political changes, which we talked about above.

- In general, do the Russians have a chance to organize themselves like Israel or Japan, that is, to create a national state? This is a question from one of our readers.

- Of course, there is such a chance, since the Russians feel that they are one people. Precisely Russians, not Russians. So Russia is in fact, in fact, a nation state, all that remains is to formalize the superstructure - laws - in accordance with this reality and change the policy so that it coincides with the interests of the national majority.

- Do you think that Russians have a national identity these days?

- Yes, it is, it manifests itself in everyday life. It's just that Russians are afraid to talk about it out loud. At least two-thirds of Russians feel their national consciousness. Just do not confuse real Russians and "literary" ones - national costumes, cuisine, instruments, something else. It's just a splint. The nation state is a modern state, not archaism.

“Moscow's policy towards these republics will become more balanced. Paying huge sums of money for political loyalty is wrong " RIA Novosti / Said Tsarnaev

- The overwhelming majority of today's "Russian nationalists" are Orthodox activists and are convinced that the Russian national state must stand on the foundation of Orthodoxy, without it there is nothing. Personally, this format of a nation-state is unpleasant to me. A multinational and cosmopolitan society is better, but secular and with freedom of worldview, including religious, choice.

- Your remark is appropriate. But, firstly, if you are afraid, then it is better not to do anything at all, not even leave the house. There is always a risk when you do something. And, secondly, the results of this process will depend on those who are at the head of it. Because there is a general sociological pattern: those at the bottom copy those at the top. And if the elite sets itself clear goals that are understandable and beneficial to the national majority, nothing terrible will happen.

Let's say you say: we want to provide the national majority with affordable housing in order to reverse the demographic situation. The lower classes answer: “Great! We want! " This is the nation state. But if someone, instead of clear and understandable goals, uses myths like “Stalinism” and says that it is in it that the primordially Russian character and style of behavior of those in power are concentrated, then this is no longer a national state. This is completely different.

- Is “neo-Eurasianism” that dominates the semi-official ideology of the ruling group seriously? What do you think - do they really believe in it or use it, like the notorious "Stalinism"?

- To believe or not to believe - such a question in politics is not worth it. They find it convenient for themselves. This provides some kind of ideological rationale for what they are doing. They use it as long as it suits them. And religion, by the way, too. And if suddenly the weather vane of public sentiment swings in the other direction, they will become Russian nationalists or even Muslims. Therefore, you should not focus too much on this issue.

"Russia made no effort to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence"

- Since we mentioned neo-Eurasianism, we will end our conversation with a series of questions about Ukraine: it is, perhaps, the main victim of the ideology of “neo-Eurasianism”, or the “Russian world”.

One of our readers recalls that Brzezinski is credited with the statement: "Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, with Ukraine, Russia automatically turns into an empire." That is, I would like to know your opinion: is the "furry paw of American imperialism" visible in the rupture of relations between Russia and Ukraine?

- I believe that the separation of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. It began not two years ago, but back in the early 1990s. And even then, many analysts said that Ukraine would inevitably drift towards the West. Moreover, Russia did not make any special efforts to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence. Or, at least, she was making the wrong effort. I do not mean the supply of gas at reduced prices, but cultural and intellectual leverage. They weren't used and nobody gave a damn about that. So, I repeat, this is a completely natural process.

And after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the war in Donbass, the point of no return has been passed. Now Ukraine will definitely never be a fraternal state with Russia. At the same time, I do not think that the West will accept Ukraine either. Most likely, she will drag out a poor existence. But this does not mean that she will come to bow to Moscow. Anti-Moscow and anti-Russian sentiments will henceforth be the cornerstone for the formation of the national identity of Ukrainians. Here the question can be closed.

RIA Novosti / Andrey Stenin

- So Russia will never be an empire again?

- Well, this was understandable even in the 1990s, and not only in connection with Brzezinski's geopolitical views. And now we are at the point of post-Soviet existence. Rather, we are stuck there and are not developing anywhere. True, this inertia has already exhausted itself. So political changes are inevitable.

- Is there an opportunity in the future to compromise the "Crimean issue" in order to get rid of the sanctions?

- I think there is a chance to freeze this problem and ensure de facto recognition of Crimea. As for the Crimean Tatars, there are not very many of them. And they can be offered such a formula, based on which they would understand that it is better to live in peace. If they understand that there is no other alternative for them, then they will make peace. This is quite enough. De jure, the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory depends on the position of Ukraine. If we talk about the sanctions against Russia, that is, those that were introduced for the Crimea, and there are those for the Donbass. And these are different sanctions. And the sanctions for Crimea are far from the most sensitive.

- What, in your opinion, awaits Ukraine in general and Donbass in particular?

- The fate of Ukraine depends on the quality of its elite. If there appears an elite capable of leading the country onto new rails of development, then everything will be fine. I don't think it will break up or become a federation. But, one way or another, he will remain "the sick man of Europe."

The fate of Donbass is dire. In any situation, it is doomed to be a kind of "black hole" on the geopolitical map. Most likely, it will turn out to be a conciliated territory, but de facto neither within Ukraine, nor within Russia. It will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline will reign - a kind of European Somalia. There is no point in modernizing something, because Donbass is not particularly needed by anyone. For Ukraine and for Russia it is a stone on their feet. But people get used to everything. I have friends and relatives who live there, have already adapted to this lifestyle and do not want to leave there.

RIA Novosti / Dan Levy

reference

Valery Solovey was born in 1960. After graduating from the Faculty of History of Moscow State University, he worked at the Academy of Sciences, the Gorbachev Foundation. Completed an internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Doctor of Historical Sciences (the topic of the dissertation is "The Russian Question" and its influence on the domestic and foreign policy of Russia "). At present, he is a professor at MGIMO, head of the department of public relations, the author of a course of lectures on manipulating public consciousness.

Political scientist, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Advertising and Public Relations, MGIMO Valery Solovey wrote on his Facebook page that he was leaving the university for political reasons: " Personal and public. Today I applied for resignation from on their own from MGIMO, where he worked for 11 years. For political reasons, the institute no longer wants to do anything with me. I am sympathetic to this unwillingness. And I will be grateful if henceforth they will not associate me with MGIMO in any way ... About my plans. In the near future, at the request of a very large European publishing house, I will begin to write a book, the topic of which I will modestly keep silent about. I will never return to teaching. Russia is entering an era of drastic changes, and I intend to take a very active part in them. Stay tuned".

Friends and associates burst into words of support. Head of the Party of Change Dmitry Gudkov: " I wish you good luck and condolences to the students!". Permanent columnist" Echo of Moscow "Ksenia Larina:" It had to happen, you knew. And I'm sure that you had no doubts about the choice of the path". Biblical modernist Andrei Desnitsky:" Andrey Zubov(the infamous Vlasov professor - Approx.) MGIMO ceased to be needed five years ago, Valery Solovey just now. Looking at the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, you understand: and really, why are they there?" Milestone, yes. I wish you success and development, further creative and political self-realization! Well, "Stay with us")))". Israeli ultrasionist Avigdor Eskin:" This is takeoff. How many years will we see Professor Nightingale at the head of MGIMO? 3 years later? After 5 years?". Opposition actress Elena Koreneva:" Naturally. Let's wait for the book!". Poetess and coordinator of the" Republican Alternative "movement Alina Vitukhnovskaya:" Good luck!".

"Valery Dmitrievich's contract ended, and he made this independent decision - to leave of his own free will. What political reasons are meant - it makes sense to clarify with him", - explained to RBC in the press service of MGIMO. Nightingale himself told the BBC Russian service that the university" has the most direct relation"to his dismissal, while he was given to understand that the desire to stop cooperation comes from" from some outside": "I was told that, for political reasons, the institute considers it extremely undesirable for me to work there. In particular, I was accused of being subversive and engaging in anti-state propaganda. This style of wording brings to mind the Soviet past.". In a conversation with MK, he noticed that he had" a new, very important stage in life begins".

Did the accusation of anti-state activity arise from scratch? What is the "era of drastic changes" mentioned by Nightingale? He considers the events around the "Golunov case" to be its beginning. A couple of days ago, in an interview with the opposition portal Moscow Activist, the professor said: " From my point of view, the people who took to the streets on June 12 deserve all sorts of respect. What we are seeing now is the formation of massive new rights. This is somewhat similar to what happened in 2011, well, we will not take 2012, the dynamics there were already high. That after all, a large group of people are ready to come out, despite the fact that they are trying to bring down the dynamics on it, despite the fact that these people are being pressured. That is, society is changing literally before our eyes. The readiness for mobilization is much greater than six months ago. Much more. It will grow. But in order for this readiness to turn into something effective, you need to practice, that is, go out into the streets. Risk appetite will increase when people see something new. As soon as we feel that there are several tens of thousands of us, and moreover, when these tens of thousands behave a little more organized, and there are chances for this, that is, some kind of organizing principle appears, then the behavior of these people will be different. Not immediately, but gradually, such three or four mass actions will be required in order for people to start behaving differently, and the downside is for the police to become afraid of them. I am talking about this quite thoroughly: there are not many police and riot police in Moscow. In reality, there are not many of them, do you understand? And as soon as 25-30 thousand people take to the streets who are ready to resist, who have some kind of organizing principle, the situation will change ... Next year, not in the first half, but in the second, closer to the end, we we will see that the regional authorities will sue the local protesters in order to put pressure on Moscow in this way. This is what we observed at the turn of the eighties-nineties, in 1991, for sure. And this is a practice that will be repeated, there will be nothing unexpected for me personally. All things have happened before. It's just that history has reached them a second time. We are now figuratively at the end of 1989. Feels like". The same was broadcast by Nightingale at a recent public debate initiated by the libertarian Mikhail Svetov:" Now a lot has started to change. Even the beaten, killed people from the opposition felt something different in the air. In the fall, you will see this when a group of people appears who are ready to do something, and she will appeal to everyone. Because it is clear what to do, how to do, what to say, what to demand. For the first time since 2012, and even for the first time since 1990, there was a desire for change that had not been there for 30 years, and there was a willingness to sacrifice something for the sake of these changes. Society in Russia is more and more ready for violence".

He predicts a revolution, longs for " fire"which will result in" re-establishment of Russia". He is not at all happy with, in the first place," aggressive foreign policy"Apparently, Nightingale intends to propose his own candidacy for the role of the" organizing principle "of the Russian Maidan. But nevertheless, he is afraid of the siloviki:" I assure you that there are “enthusiasts” calling for tougher and more massive measures. They are preparing for this. Lists of those who need to be taken into custody without charge, they were ready by 2012. And they are replenished. In Moscow, there are about 1.5-2 thousand people. It is believed that if these people are interned, then it will be possible to decapitate any political movement... And these "enthusiasts" complain that there is no hard line. Putin, if you like, is actually holding them back. I am not in the least ironic. There are people who are ready to act more decisively and tougher.".

It is worth recalling the main milestones in the biography of Valery Dmitrievich. He was born on 08/19/1960 in the city of Happiness, Voroshilovgrad region of the Ukrainian SSR, spent his childhood in Western Ukraine. Graduated from the Faculty of History of Moscow State University. MV Lomonosov Moscow State University, in 1983-93 he was a graduate student and employee of the Institute of History of the USSR of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, during perestroika times he defended his Ph.D. thesis on the topic "The role of the Institute of Red Professors in the formation of Soviet historical science and the development of problems of national history." Since 1993 he has worked as one of the leading experts of the Gorbachev Fund. Prepared several reports for international organizations. In parallel, he completed an internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science, worked there as a visiting researcher.

In 2005 he defended his doctoral dissertation on the topic "The Russian question and its influence on the domestic and foreign policy of Russia (early 18th - early 21st centuries)" and began to intensively establish contacts with part of the nationalists, claiming the status of the ideologue of the national democracy, "anti-imperialism" , " progressive, democratic national liberalism without anti-Semitism and Orthodoxy". Seriously became close to DPNI * Alexander Belov / Potkin and Russian social movement Konstantin Krylov. He was noticed at "Russian marches" and other events, despite the dissatisfaction of a number of nationalists with the influence " a Jew from the Gorbachev Fund".

Since 2007, he worked at the Department of Advertising and Public Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MFA) (taught courses "PR and Advertising in Politics", "Fundamentals of Information Warfare and Media Manipulation", "Fundamentals of State Policy in the Information Sphere"). A constant, welcome guest of Echo of Moscow, Radio Liberty, Dozhd and other hostile sites.

Valery Solovey at the "Russian March":

He took an active part in the "swamp" events; there are rumors that he convinced the most frostbitten fighters to storm the State Duma. Then he wrote on the APN website: " A revolution has begun in Russia ... As world experience shows, three conditions are needed for the victory of a revolution. First, the high morale of the revolutionaries and the progressive weakening of the authorities' ability to resist the revolutionary onslaught. We are already seeing this. The dynamics of mass protest in Moscow and other cities is growing, while the morale and physical condition of the police and riot police is deteriorating. After a few days, the police will refuse to follow orders simply because they have no physical strength left. At the same time, violence against revolutionaries draws new people into mass actions and increases the scale of protest. Even the arrest of a number of street leaders is not able to reduce the intensity of the movement. Quite the opposite, violence emanating from a morally illegitimate government only strengthens the will to win. The second condition for the victory of the revolution is the alliance of a part of the elite with the insurgent people. The elite are at a loss. Some of its groups are already ready to lend a hand to the revolution, but are afraid to make the wrong move. However, the first swallow appeared. State Duma Deputy, Deputy Chairman of the Security Committee Gennady Gudkov not only openly expressed solidarity with the insurgent people, but also took an active part in the protest action on December 6. This is not only a courageous but also a wise step. The print press is ALREADY on the side of the revolution. Soon the semi-official television channels will also start talking about the revolution: first neutrally, and then - sympathetically. And this will become a sign that the elite have turned their backs on their long-hated "national leader." The third condition and, at the same time, the culmination of the revolution is a symbolic gesture that marks its victory. As a rule, this is the capture of a building associated with the previous regime. In France there was the storming of the Bastille, in Russia in October 1917 - the capture of the Winter Palace.". As we know, the white-tape revolution did not happen.

In January 2012, Nightingale headed the working group on the creation of the opposition nationalist party "New Force" (evil tongues spoke about 2 million dollars received from the power five-columnists for the formation of such a structure), on October 6, 2012, he was elected chairman at the founding congress. Many prominent members of the New Force soon went to Ukraine to participate in the Euromaidan and the genocide of the Russian population; let's call the head of the Belgorod branch of the National Assembly Roman Strigunkov (admirer of Adolf Hitler andex-blogger with the nickname Hitlerolog, leader of the dwarf regional Russian National Socialist Movement, leader of the "Russian Legion" at the Kiev "Euromaidan"), Deputy Chairman of the Murmansk branch of the National Assembly Alexander "Pomor-88" Valov (who came from the Murmansk Hitleristskin parties to the punitive battalion "Azov" **) or, for example, an activist of the National Assembly, former film actor Anatoly Pashinin (as a result, he called for terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation and joinedin the 8th separate battalion "Aratta" of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army ** Dmitry Yarosh), who enthusiastically declared: " Valery Solovey is the chairman of our New Force party. I listened to all of his interviews, I'm proud of it, read all of his work!". In March 2016, Nightingale told reporters that the party" frozen due to the fact that we were threatened with reprisals".

Valery Solovey at the New Force congress:

Valery Solovey and Roman Strigunkov:

On November 29, 2017, he entered the campaign headquarters of the candidate for the post of President of the Russian Federation, business ombudsman, leader of the right-wing liberal Growth Party Boris Titov. Supervised ideology in this headquarters, performed the functions of a key political strategist. He was a confidant of Titov, represented him at the pre-election debates.

Author of the books "Russian history: a new reading", "The meaning, logic and form of Russian revolutions", "Blood and soil of Russian history", "Failed revolution. Historical meanings of Russian nationalism" (co-authored by sister Tatyana Solovey), "Absolute weapon. Fundamentals psychological warfare and media manipulation "," Revolution! Fundamentals of the revolutionary struggle in the modern era ", more than two thousand newspaper articles and Internet publications.

From an interview with the liberal portal Znak.com (March 2016):
"The Overton Window is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiracy in nature: they say, there is a group of people who are planning a strategy designed for decades to corrupt society. Never and nowhere in history has anything like this been and cannot be. All changes in human history occur spontaneously. This does not mean that there is certainly some kind of conspiracy behind them ... Yes, what was anti-norm 100-200 years ago is suddenly becoming acceptable today. But this is a natural process, there is no need to see here the “furry paw of the Antichrist” who came to this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else ... I believe that the separation of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. It began not two years ago, but back in the early 1990s. And even then, many analysts said that Ukraine would inevitably drift towards the West. I repeat, this is a completely natural process. And after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the war in Donbass, the point of no return has been passed. Now Ukraine will definitely never be a fraternal state with Russia. Anti-Moscow and anti-Russian sentiments will henceforth be the cornerstone for the formation of the national identity of Ukrainians. Here the question can be closed ... Donbass in any situation is doomed to be a "black hole" on the geopolitical map. It will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline will reign - a kind of European Somalia. There is no point in modernizing something, because Donbass is not particularly needed by anyone ... Russia will never be an empire. This was understandable even in the 1990s.".

* Recognized as extremist and prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation
** Terrorist group banned in Russia